The rate of future EV adoption is going to depend heavily on EV pricing and the availability of charging stations, according to industry experts. China has the advantage on both counts.
The average electric vehicle in China cost R645 800 in mid-2023, according to UK research firm, JATO Dynamics. The cheapest EV in China was 8% less expensive than the cheapest petrol-powered equivalent car, JATO found. That is thanks to massive government subsidies and rare earths that are crucial in EV production being readily available.
EVs have about a quarter of the market in China, and the country is expected to lead global growth.
In the United States, by contrast, the average price for an EV is more than R988 000, according to automotive research company, Kelley Blue Book, some R94 000 more than a petrol-powered car.
The United States also lags well behind China in total number of public charging stations. An industry-funded White Paper released in October by the Electrification Institute noted that the United States has about 52,000 public charging stations, Europe about 400,000 and China about 1.2 million.
Even so, EVs are expected to grow to up to 50% of new US car registrations by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as drivers are drawn to the improving technology, falling prices and the prospect of sidestepping volatile prices at petrol pumps.
"Change on the political side could delay the transition," said the IEA’s Apostolos Petropoulos, referring to concerns among some EV makers that next year's US election could usher in a new set of policies. "But ultimately the transition is happening now."
